According to a new study published in the 'American Economic Journal: Applied Economics', a cancer diagnosis increases the likelihood of committing a crime by approximately 14%. Researchers analyzed a massive dataset from Denmark, covering all residents, with a focus on 368,317 people diagnosed with cancer between 1980 and 2018. In the year immediately following the diagnosis, the crime rate among patients decreases slightly. However, about two years later, as the initial physical shock subsides, the probability of committing a crime reaches unprecedented levels. The study found evidence that 'cancer patients face a lower expected punishment due to a reduced chance of survival.' While this may seem counterintuitive, researchers see this variable as a distress signal, not its cause. This phenomenon points to the fragility of our commitment to the social contract when we face imminent death due to illness and inadequate healthcare we believe we deserve. While the financial strain caused by the disease plays a role, the data showed a 38% relative increase in non-economic crimes—including violent crimes—compared to a 14% increase in economic crimes. This suggests a more sinister psychological mechanism at play: the probability of survival. The justice system relies on the threat of future punishment to deter crime. If a person does not expect a future, this threat loses its impact. The study found that cancer pushes individuals with no prior criminal record to commit crimes for the first time. To understand the reasons, one must look at crime from the perspective of the 'rational criminal,' a theory popularized by economists Gary Becker and Isaac Ehrlich in the 1960s and 1970s. This theory posits that criminals are not necessarily 'bad' people, but rational actors who weigh the potential gains of a crime against the probability of being caught and the severity of the punishment. A severe health shock alters all the variables in this equation.
